Still following the post above about the dire need to increase the energy building renovation rate in Europe by at least 100% see in the link below a recent paper accepted in the journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change that was put online this month:
“In this
paper a global, long term model of building stock development is presented,
impacting buildings energy consumption, which has been neglected in the global
studies so far…The results give insight to where what kind of policy is the
most effective, and how policy decisions carry out over time. The model is
based on in depth data collection, has a transparent structure, while capturing
many country level details that reflect an important regional heterogeneity.
The model is validated at intermediate output level, such as construction and
building stock size, as well as final output levels, such as U-value and final
energy consumption. The model projections show that while globally the majority
of buildings in 2050 are built after 2015, in Europe, the opposite is true.
This has major consequences for policy impact of building codes…In China and
Africa, on the other hand, focusing on new construction policies can be
extremely effective, saving up to 43% and 64% of space heating and cooling
final energy demand in 2050 respectively. In particular in China, final energy
for cooling is projected to strongly increase in the decades to come… As a
result, in a no policy scenario, final energy demand for space heating and
cooling would almost double in the coming 30 years…Assuming an electricity
emission factor of 96 g/MJ (average of SSP2 baseline results for 2050 of
the 6 marker models) and standard emission factors of other fuels globally
implementation of the EPDB standards (the global standards scenario) would save
approximately 3 Gt per year worldwide…The objective to at least double the
annual energy renovation of buildings by 2030 set by the European Green Deal is
therefore timely”
